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A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the country and triggered disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.

That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Unprepared

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate

The team have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.

"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. Both composes two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Debates cover identity markers, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.

Probability of Referendum

McBride believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has possesses something to learn from the opposing arguments."

Appeal for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster must participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."