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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward pattern. It frequently functions as a type of apology. We regret we got wrong your team in our pre-campaign forecasts.

On paper, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the largest resurgence receives the award. However, it fuels an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent coaching or merely the biggest surprise.

However the current competition is distinctly different. The pool of nominees is remarkably deep. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with reigning division winners declining and recent also-rans ascending in unison. Under an typical year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. But in such a wild and fun season, he's up against five other exceptional coaches.

Here is how the hypothetical vote could look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson not only fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Given a proper system, Williams has been afforded the chance to showcase his special ability. Since midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's prolonged excellence. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system rather than freelancing. It is an offense constructed solely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a steady helping of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that springs wide receiver targets all over the field. The QB has taken advantage. And when easy reads weren't there, he's been capable to conjure magic out of nothing.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive blueprint. Almost each bet – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the building with the level of hype he did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive wizard but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.

In a typical year, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. Yet this is not a normal season!

Where his candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for sustained success. But Johnson comes up short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has masterminded a dramatic resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now sits at number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, Coen has nailed the leadership aspects, which was not a certainty after his initial public introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the ideal staff mix of youth and experience, Coen bet on newbies. From the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a new job on the fly. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback had the team wobbling again. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking consistent ones. Coen recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen gets the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year case has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the season in October. Rather, it shaped it. By the mid point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has regressed since that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still